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NA — Primary election

NB — General election

 

NA01

 

Candidate most likely to win Republican nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regardless of who you might vote for, who do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?

[Prompt once if no response:] Please just give us your best guess.

 

1

{Wave 1 10/2/07 – 10/21/07 : Sam Brownback}

2

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : Rudy Giuliani}

3

Mike Huckabee

4

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Duncan Hunter}

5

John McCain

6

Ron Paul

7

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 2/7/08 : Mitt Romney}

8

{Wave 1 : Tom Tancredo}

9

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Fred Thompson}

999

Skipped

 

NA02

 

Candidate second most likely to win Republican nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Filter

If named Republican candidate most likely to win nomination

Wave 1 :

NA01 = 1 – 9

Wave 2 :

NA01 = 2 – 7, 9

 

Who do you think is second most likely to win the Republican nomination?

[Prompt once if no response:] Please just give us your best guess.

 

1

{Wave 1 10/2/07 – 10/21/07 : Sam Brownback}

2

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : Rudy Giuliani}

3

Mike Huckabee

4

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Duncan Hunter}

5

John McCain

6

Ron Paul

7

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 2/7/08 : Mitt Romney}

8

{Wave 1 : Tom Tancredo}

9

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Fred Thompson}

999

Skipped

 

NA03

 

Margin by which leading candidate will win Republican nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Filter

If named Republican candidates most likely to win nomination

Wave 1 :

NA02 = 1 – 9

Wave 2 :

NA02 = 2 – 7, 9

 

Do you think [candidate most likely to win Republican nomination in NA01] will beat [candidate second most likely to win in NA02] by a lot or by just a little?

 

1

By a lot

2

By just a little

999

Skipped

 

NA04

 

Candidate most likely to win Democratic nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

All dates

4/2/08 – 6/10/08

 

 

 

 

 

Filter

If {Wave 3 : think of self as Democrat or lean Democrat}

Wave 3 :

MA01 = 5 – 7

 

Regardless of who you might vote for, who do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president?

[Prompt once if no response:] Please just give us your best guess.

 

1

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Joe Biden}

2

Hillary Clinton

3

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Chris Dodd}

4

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : John Edwards}

5

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 3/4/08 : Mike Gravel}

6

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/24/08 : Dennis Kucinich}

7

Barack Obama

8

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/9/08 : Bill Richardson}

999

Skipped

 

Due to a data collection error, this variable was not measured for respondents in Wave 3 who were asked political orientation in the current interview (MA08) and who have a value of not-strong Democrat in MA01.

 

NA05

 

Candidate second most likely to win Democratic nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Filter

If named Democratic candidate most likely to win nomination

NA04 = 1 – 8

 

Who do you think is second most likely to win the Democratic nomination?

[Prompt once if no response:] Please just give us your best guess.

 

1

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Joe Biden}

2

Hillary Clinton

3

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Chris Dodd}

4

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : John Edwards}

5

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 3/4/08 : Mike Gravel}

6

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/24/08 : Dennis Kucinich}

7

Barack Obama

8

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/9/08 : Bill Richardson}

999

Skipped

 

NA06

 

Margin by which leading candidate will win Democratic nomination

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Filter

If named Democratic candidates most likely to win nomination

NA05 = 1 – 8

 

Do you think [candidate most likely to win Democratic nomination in NA04] will beat [candidate second most likely to win in NA05] by a lot or by just a little?

 

1

By a lot

2

By just a little

999

Skipped

 

NB01

 

Republican or Democrat more likely to win

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All dates

All dates

All dates

 

 

 

 

 

Thinking about the general presidential election in the fall {Wave 1 : of 2008}, regardless of which party you personally like best, do you think the Republican candidate will win the presidency, that the Democratic candidate will win the presidency, some other party will win, or is it too close or too early to call?

 

1

Probably the Republican candidate

2

Probably the Democratic candidate

3

Probably another party's candidate

4

Too close or too early to call

999

Skipped

 

NB02

 

Republican with best chance of winning general election

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/1/07 – 1/1/08

1/1/08 – 3/5/08

 

 

 

 

 

 

In your opinion, which of the Republican candidates would give the Republican party the best chance of winning the presidency in November?

 

1

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : Rudy Giuliani}

2

Mike Huckabee

3

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Duncan Hunter}

4

John McCain

5

Ron Paul

6

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 2/7/08 : Mitt Romney}

7

{Wave 1 : Tom Tancredo}

8

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/21/08 : Fred Thompson}

999

Skipped

 

NB03

 

Democrat with best chance of winning general election

 

Schedule

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

 

 

 

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

Date bar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/1/07 – 1/1/08

All dates

4/2/08 – 6/10/08

 

 

 

 

 

In your opinion, which of the Democratic candidates would give the Democratic party the best chance of winning the presidency in November?

 

1

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Joe Biden}

2

Hillary Clinton

3

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/3/08 : Chris Dodd}

4

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/29/08 : John Edwards}

5

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 3/4/08 : Mike Gravel}

6

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/24/08 : Dennis Kucinich}

7

Barack Obama

8

{Wave 1; Wave 2 1/1/08 – 1/9/08 : Bill Richardson}

999

Skipped